Mythos is clearly a nice improvement. It’s also clear there’s a lot of unfounded hype around it to keep the AI hype cycle going.
Gating access is also a clever marketing move:
Option A: Release it but run out of capacity, everyone is annoyed and moves on. Drives focus back to smaller models.
Option B: A bunch of manufactured hype and putting up velvet ropes around it saying it’s “too dangerous” to let near mortals touch it. Press buys it hook, like, and sinker, sidesteps the capacity issues and keeps the hype train going a bit longer.
Seems quite clear we’re seeing “Option B” play out here.
AWS was the clear undisputed leader for years, but feels like it’s lost its way now.
It knew how to be the market leader and first to market with big launches. It’s now struggling to navigate a world where in more and more areas it’s falling behind. The big early misses on GenAI seem to have accelerated that.
A ton of momentum from earlier years keeps it moving, but that playbook only lasts so long.
They’re still going the almost certainly end up running this on US designed chips, with US designed networking equipment and a bunch of other assets tied back to US companies. They should do what they want, but it’s “sovereignty theater” at best.
I wouldn't say that. I think it's a proportional response to US tarriffs/changes in foreign policy under the current administration, just like the cancellation of defence contracts/orders.
It's unrealistic for any nation to do everything themselves, but they can make some changes in response to the US starting trade wars, ditching foreign policy/climate objectives, etc...
The US or Trump can’t switch off your chips or your networking equipment on a whim - and if they ever designed hardware that could do that, no one would buy such hardware as soon as that capability became known. Using cloud software is a much bigger risk - your access can be turned off anytime and data access is part of the deal.
Sovereignty is not about building everything yourself. Division of labor advances civilization, but it doesn’t have to come at the cost of sovereignty. Sovereignty is about designing the work contract such that you don’t become entirely beholden to another party. You build hardware for me, but after that it’s mine, not yours. I trust you to build the hardware to fulfill that contract, and if you ever break that trust I’ll find someone else to build that hardware. That’s sovereignty. I don’t have to build everything myself.
What you are missing is that, unlike US citizens, Europeans don't hesitate to fire their political parties. New parties will appear and take the power. The republicans from Sarkozy were swiftly replaced by Rennaisance by Macron, a party with just ten years of life.
Even more, Sarcozy was jailed later by corruption, a symptom of a healthy democracy that US should try sometime (It would fix a lot of the current and future US problems).
Jumping in the Trump circus in Europe one year ago, maybe could work; now it equals to political suicide after Greenland, the Middle East mess and the more and more obvious symptoms of Trump's dementia and disgusting behaviour. Definitely didn't worked for Elon in the past Germany elections. European politicians are very aware of this, currently.
The elections in Hungary are probably ultra-rigged at this point, but we will see if Vance performing as guest comedian for the pro-Russian party Fidesz will help Orban (or Vance) in the long term.
Maybe, but chips cannot hold you hostage during work.
I don't care where things are built (except when they are built somewhere where human rights are being treated like shit), software is what locks you into whatever bullshit the company decides on, not chips.
So it is a good step I think. We don't have to be all "we don't use anything from outside the EU" - why? Some countries are better than others at stuff. Fair enough. The movement is about moving away from software monopolies that decide on what you can and can't do, not about having everything inside a certain geographical location.
Space is hard. If we didn’t accept these parameters we wouldn’t go to space. Apollo lost one entire crew and almost two, the Space Shuttle lost two missions where the whole crew died. The risks are real.
So we’re meant to believe that Anthropic is sitting on a world ending cyber tool that writes God-like code while just forgetting that a week ago the same company leaked its source code on the internet and was ribbed for how shit it was.
I’m sure it’s a decent model. But it’s also clear folks are running out of runway and desperate to find something that sticks and keeps the party going.
All the promises of amazing things in general work never happened. Companies consistently say they’re seeing no ROI. The AI crowd now hard pivots to cyber and, right out of the Palantir playbook, runs with the “our stuff is so amazing we can’t talk about it, but trust us bro” move that isn’t really fooling anyone.
Meanwhile the folks let in on the “secret” are those that also desperately need for the hype to continue to protect their own positions in this game.
Look forward to a model upgrade but the hype fluff games are getting old. Watching OpenAI completely crash out of pole position on the hype train though has been at least amusing.
You come at the king, you best not miss. Unfortunately, having survived a coup, his odds of surviving the next have improved. Now he knows how they go, what to look for and how he might handle them. I wouldn't bet on him being kicked out, at least while OpenAI is still on top. If OpenAI stumbles and Anthropic or another starts to prevail, only then would I bet on Sam getting pushed out.
Altman describes his shifting views as genuine good faith evolution of thinking. Do you believe he has a clear North Star behind all this that’s not centered on himself?
The piece is an interrogation of this very question, at great length and with some nuance. I think what it does most usefully is scrutinize an array of different answers to the question.
My own impression after many hours of conversation is that he is identifying something of a true north star when he frames this around "winning." There are people in the story who talk about him emphasizing a desire for power (as opposed to, say, wealth). I think he probably also believes, to some extent, the story he tells that equates winning, and his gaining power, with a superabundant utopian future for all.
However, I think critics correctly highlight a tension between his statements about centering humanity writ large and his tilt into relentless accelerationism.
Nah you see, the NASDAQ is giving them a out just like SpaceX. Short-circuit the index joining time and allow them to get into index funds within days. After that you shift all the losses onto 401ks as the original investors cash out and the 401ks blindly buy the shares as part of the index.
not to mention the drama that's followed the company from the very beginning. It think its getting to a point where the character issues can no longer be ignored bc it's directly affecting business
I think the IPO and subsequent quarterly earnings where they will be pressured by analysts will pop it all.
I was watching a recent Jensen Huang Q&A with analysts and it was essentially “just trust me bro”. They’re all interconnected - once there’s a correction for one player, all get affected.
Can’t wait to finally get this over with so we can finally move on.
The gap between hype and reality needs to be corrected.
Gating access is also a clever marketing move:
Option A: Release it but run out of capacity, everyone is annoyed and moves on. Drives focus back to smaller models.
Option B: A bunch of manufactured hype and putting up velvet ropes around it saying it’s “too dangerous” to let near mortals touch it. Press buys it hook, like, and sinker, sidesteps the capacity issues and keeps the hype train going a bit longer.
Seems quite clear we’re seeing “Option B” play out here.
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