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It'd be a good way to lose money at the moment. Probably not too far off in the future it would make sense though


LLM-superforecaster parity projected to late 2026 (and LLMs now outperform non-expert public participants) according to https://forecastingresearch.substack.com/p/ai-llm-forecastin...


Would you like to bet on that? :)


that's correct. Also Kalshi does pay out interest on, and Poly does on a few markets


the LLMs would get crushed


To expand on this - an LLM will try to play (and reason) like a person would, while a solver simply crunches the possibility space for the mathematically optimal move.

It’s similar to how an LLM can sometimes play chess on a reasonably high (but not world-class) level, while Stockfish (the chess solver) can easily crush even the best human player in the world.


How does a poker solver select bet size? Doesn't this depend on posteriors on the opponent's 'policy' + hand estimation?


GTO (“game theory optimal”) poker solvers are based around a decision tree with pre-set bet sizes (eg: check, bet small, bet large, all in), which are adjusted/optimized for stack depth and position. This simplifies the problem space: including arbitrary bet sizes would make the tree vastly larger and increase computational cost exponentially.


No, I'm not super certain, but I believe most solvers are trained to be game theory optimal (GTO), which means they assume every other player is also playing GTO. This means there is no strategy which beats them in the long run, but they may not be playing the absolute best strategy.


Typically when you run a simulation on a hand, you give it some bet size options.

To limit the scope of what it has to simulate.

It's unlikely they're perfect, but there's very small differences in EV betting 100% vs 101.6% or whatever.


Not only to limit the scope of what it has to simulate, but only a certain number of bet sizes is practical for a human to implement in their strategy.


Nash equilibrium. Optimal strategy for online poker has been known for like literally 20 years right now


How would an LLM play like a human would? I kind of doubt that there is enough recounting of poker hands or transcription of filmed poker games in the training data to imbue a human-like decision pattern.


I don't have an answer, but there's over a decade of hand history discussions online from various poker forums like 2p2 and more recently Reddit.


Also, if you set the bar for human players low enough, pretty much any set of actions is human-like. :p


You are of course correct but to be pedantic:

Stockfish isn't really a solver it's a neural net based engine


Unlike Chess, in poker you don’t have perfect information, so there’s no real way to optimize it.


You can still optimize for the expectation value, which is also essentially poker strategy.


Anybody who plays poker “optimally” is bound to lose money when they come up against anyone with skill. Once you know the strategy your opponent is employing you can play like you have anything. I believe I’ve won with 7,2 offsuite more than any other hand, because I played like I had the nuts.


This is completely wrong - the entire point of the Nash equilibrium solution (in the context of poker, at least) is that it is, at worst, EV-neutral even when your opponent has perfect knowledge of your strategy.

Your 72o comment indicates you are either playing with very weak players, or have gotten lucky, as in reasonably competitive games playing (and then full bluffing) 72o will be significantly negative EV. Try grinding that strategy at a public 10/20 table and you will be quickly butchered and sent back to the ATM.


There are numerous videos of high level professional poker players winning large hands with incredible bluffs, this whole "Nash equilibrium solution" is nothing more than a conjecture with some symbols thrown in. I will re-iterate, there is no such thing as perfect knowledge when you have imperfect information. If you play "optimally," you will get bluffed out of all your money the moment everyone else at the table figures out what you're doing.


I like it!

I was interested in this idea too and made a video where some of the previous top LLMs play against each other https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsvcoUxGFmQ&t=2s


If I wanted to run this locally at somewhat decent speeds, is an RK3588S board (like OrangePi 5) the cheapest option?


The RK3588 is a bit interesting because of its NPU. You can find models that have been converted to take advantage of that on HuggingFace: https://huggingface.co/models?search=rk3588 .

No clue how performance compares. Not sure it's worth dealing with the lesser software support compared to getting an AMD mini PC and using Vulkan on llama.cpp for standard GGUF models.


I'm going to attempt to get it running on the BeagleY-AI https://www.beagleboard.org/boards/beagley-ai

Similar form factor to raspberry pi but with 4 TOPS of performance and enough RAM.


It depends on your idea of decent speeds and what you would use it for. I just tried it on a laptop with an AMD HX 370 running on battery in power save mode and it's not especially impressive, although it runs much better in balanced or performance mode. I gave it the prompt "write a fizzbuzz program in rust" and it took almost a minute and a half. I expect it to be pretty terrible on an SBC. Your best bet is to try it out on the oldest hardware you have and figure out if you can tolerate worse performance.


good idea, will test that out


Tried with S25+ (SD 8 elite). 0.82tok/s(4B L model). It's barely useful speed but it's pretty impressive either.


RK3588 uses a 7 year old CPU design and OrangePi 5 looks expensive (well over $100).

A used sub-$100 x86 box is going to be much better


you're right. For my purposes, I was thinking of something I could use if I wanted to manufacture a new (smallish) product



Maybe a little off topic, but is there a way for a distributed app to connect to one of the LLM companies (OpenAI, etc.) without the unencrypted data hitting an in-between proxy server?

An app I'm building uses LLMs to process messages. I don’t want the unencrypted message to hit my server - and ideally I wouldn’t have the ability to decrypt it. But I can’t communicate directly from client -> LLM Service without leaking the API key.


"But I can’t communicate directly from client -> LLM Service without leaking the API key."

There is a way you can do that right now: the OpenAI WebRTC API introduced the idea of an "ephemeral key": https://platform.openai.com/docs/guides/realtime-webrtc

This provides a way for your server to create a limited-time API key for a user which their browser can then use to talk to OpenAI's API directly without proxying through you.

I love this idea, but I want it for way more than just the WebRTC API, and I'd like it for other API providers too.

My ideal version would be a way to create an ephemeral API key that's only allowed to talk to a specific model with a specific pre-baked system prompt (and maybe tool configuration and suchlike) and that only works for a limited time and has a limited token budget.


interesting, will check that out. thanks!


Will such processing be cheap enough to be done by a box that plugs into a customers router to handle such? Would they buy them? Notably not just for this use case but others



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