> The site acts like the main challenges are legal when really they're technical.
The main challenge, in my opinion, is volume.
The future of online betting is exchange marketplaces, where users/members can both back and lay event outcomes. This removes the reliance of a central player (bookmaker/sportsbook) to support the lay side of the market. Overlays are generally much smaller on exchanges.
However, to achieve this and also to support "trading" (multiple back and lay bets in the same market, based on in-play price movements), an exchange needs a high volume. Betfair is the best known exchange and has serious first mover advantage. I'm currently looking at the England vs India 3rd Test cricket Match Odds and over GBP44 million has been traded on that market alone. Liverpool vs Crystal Palace tonight, GBP700k and there's still four hours until kickoff. The 15.05 Thirsk 7f horse race, currently in-play and GBP650k volume.
All of Betfair's competitors to date have really struggled with this aspect. Betdaq, Smarkets, Matchbook, no matter how good their service offering or how low their commission, haven't been able to attract the same level of betting volume and are thus not as attractive as Betfair. A little bit chicken and egg scenario to be sure.
Anyway, in my view the biggest hurdle Augur will need to clear is that of market volume.
Betfair was bought by the bookmaker Paddy Power.
Betfair has both an exchange and sportsbook components.
The former is where you bet against other punters and the latter is where you bet against the company.
The site seems to steer you by default towards the latter.
If you show even minimal profitability on a sportsbook and you'll typically be restricted.
Does the sportsbook get first pick on odds on the exchange to lay off liabilities?
Do they monitor canny punters on the exchange and take positions accordingly?
Are there even chinese walls between the two parts of Betfair and between that and Paddy Power bookmakers.
Is this well regulated?
Paddy Power are a pretty slick operation but I wouldn't trust them as far as I could throw them.
The main challenge, in my opinion, is volume.
The future of online betting is exchange marketplaces, where users/members can both back and lay event outcomes. This removes the reliance of a central player (bookmaker/sportsbook) to support the lay side of the market. Overlays are generally much smaller on exchanges.
However, to achieve this and also to support "trading" (multiple back and lay bets in the same market, based on in-play price movements), an exchange needs a high volume. Betfair is the best known exchange and has serious first mover advantage. I'm currently looking at the England vs India 3rd Test cricket Match Odds and over GBP44 million has been traded on that market alone. Liverpool vs Crystal Palace tonight, GBP700k and there's still four hours until kickoff. The 15.05 Thirsk 7f horse race, currently in-play and GBP650k volume.
All of Betfair's competitors to date have really struggled with this aspect. Betdaq, Smarkets, Matchbook, no matter how good their service offering or how low their commission, haven't been able to attract the same level of betting volume and are thus not as attractive as Betfair. A little bit chicken and egg scenario to be sure.
Anyway, in my view the biggest hurdle Augur will need to clear is that of market volume.