The thing I don't like about prediction markets is the capped liquidity. I want to put my money where my mouth is but then find out there is only 1 share to buy in the market.
What I like about financial/forecasting crypto projects like Pareto Network is that there is no capped upside, and you can still determine the conviction some people have about an outcome
A close runner up is Numerai, given that you can tell the 'confidence' someone has, but the capped upside is arbitrarily capped, and the purpose of the project has nothing to do with censorship resistance and is beholden to the whims of the Numerai hedge fund.
I'm confused. With Augur, "complete sets" can, aiui, be created by anyone, so I don't see why there would be a problem with only one share being available?
Unless I guess if you want to make sure the trade goes through immediately?
the problem is the limited amount of money one can make off of a random market.
makes it less appealing to some (or many) and less efficient in determining an outcome
yes assassin markets and popular political events can now be traded in the US even if the Augur company gets sanctions, but for everything else this is an inefficient system.
Well, the money has to come from somewhere. In any case, someone has to be willing to take the other side of your bet, whether it is other participants or the people running the market/betting thing.
I'm not sure what alternative you are considering to not have that problem, or what it would look like for something to not have that problem.
> determine the conviction some people have about an outcome
But in order to do that, wouldn't you also have to know a lot about those people?
If you bet $1 and I bet $50 that could just mean I have a lot more money than you. Or for a million other reasons, I'm pretty likely to have not exactly 50x your conviction. I may even have less conviction than you.
And even this is assuming good faith, because I might have reasons other than "winning" for placing my bet.
What I like about financial/forecasting crypto projects like Pareto Network is that there is no capped upside, and you can still determine the conviction some people have about an outcome
A close runner up is Numerai, given that you can tell the 'confidence' someone has, but the capped upside is arbitrarily capped, and the purpose of the project has nothing to do with censorship resistance and is beholden to the whims of the Numerai hedge fund.