For example, currently human intelligence accomplishes much more with much less resource usage (many many orders of magnitude) than any AI algorithm we've developed. Someone could look at the trend, and get an idea of the extent of improvement we'd have to reach parity with human intelligence, and see if it seems at all feasible. A simple quantitative analysis of what we know so far.
At any rate, I'm unaware of any sort of significant effort at #1.
For example, currently human intelligence accomplishes much more with much less resource usage (many many orders of magnitude) than any AI algorithm we've developed. Someone could look at the trend, and get an idea of the extent of improvement we'd have to reach parity with human intelligence, and see if it seems at all feasible. A simple quantitative analysis of what we know so far.
At any rate, I'm unaware of any sort of significant effort at #1.