Yes, a better number when looking at the impact would be in life-years lost when looking at the cost of covid.

That's about $130k per quality-adjusted life-year, or $60k per year for dialysis paitents. [0]

US Covid Deaths by age 85+: 63,864 75-85: 55,089 65-75: 45,015 55-65: 26,525 45-55: 11,093 35-45: 4,206 25-35: 1,628 <25: 462

Lets assume a 2:1 male:female death ratio and mid points for all groups except 85+ (which will use 85). Just an approximation

Life expectency [2], woman, man, combined

  85: 7y, 5+10m, 6
  80: 9+8m, 8, 9
  70: 16+6, 14+3, 15
  60: 24+6, 21+6, 22
  50: 33+2, 29+8, 31
  40: 42+6, 38+7, 40
  30: 52+1, 48, 49
  20: 61+9, 57+3, 59

So years saved 85+: 383k 75-85: 825k 65-75: 990k 55-65: 580k 45-55: 340k 35-45: 170k 25-35: 80k <25: 27k

So total years: 3.4 million, an average of 16 years per death.

At $60k a year that's $200b.

At $130k a year that's $440b

As the cost to the US economy is estimated in the 10T range, it seems a poor use of funds.

However that assumes more intervention would save more lives.

With an IFR of 0.9% (even assuming no collapse in health system, but IFR estimates also overread) you'd be looking at 2.5-3 million dead overall depending how many got it. That still would come out at 5T tops, so on a financial basis better to just let it rip.

However the big assumption is that there would be no cost to economy without intervention as many people decide to stay at home, as confidence is lost and people stop spending, and that runs into a recession anyway. The 2008 recession cost $70k per person [3], that's 23T.

It also assumes that the 5T could be spent elsewhere in saving lives.

[0] https://www.valueinhealthjournal.com/article/S1098-3015(10)6... [1] https://www.heritage.org/data-visualizations/public-health/c... [2] https://coolconversion.com/heath/life-expectancy-calculator-... [3] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-much-the-2008-financial-cri...