We have a reasonable idea of the likelihood of dying of covid: the estimated IFR is between 0.14% and 0.2%. That means for every 10000 people that contract it, roughly 16 to 17 of those people will die.
Of those 16 to 17 deaths, the vast majority will be people with comorbidities. People with comorbidities don't have as many years to live as healthy people of the same age, with or without Covid.
On the other hand, we do not know how vaccinated immune systems will interact with an evolving virus. There is a study suggesting that ADE might be a higher risk with the Delta variant ("However, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants may tip the scales in favor of infection enhancement. Our structural and modeling data suggest that it might be indeed the case for Delta variants": https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8351274/)
If ADE becomes a significant issue with Delta, or the next variant to emerge we will have a scenario where people vaccinated against the Alpha ("Wuhan") strain will develop more serious illness. Imagine the shit that will hit the fan if that happens XD
It's irritating when people post these studies as though they're somehow evidence of anything.
> In conclusion, ADE may occur in people receiving vaccines based on the original Wuhan strain spike sequence (either mRNA or viral vectors) and then exposed to a Delta variant. Although this potential risk has been cleverly anticipated before the massive use of Covid-19 vaccines6, the ability of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies to mediate infection enhancement in vivo has never been formally demonstrated. However, although the results obtained so far have been rather reassuring1, to the best of our knowledge ADE of Delta variants has not been specifically assessed. Since our data indicate that Delta variants are especially well recognized by infection enhancing antibodies targeting the NTD, the possibility of ADE should be further investigated as it may represent a potential risk for mass vaccination during the current Delta variant pandemic. In this respect, second generation vaccines7 with spike protein formulations lacking structurally-conserved ADE-related epitopes should be considered.
This isn't saying anything other than "hey maybe this should be something to look out for though it looks like it was accounted for in the original vaccine development".
Leave the science to the scientists, virologists, and medical professionals. Stop insinuating that there is some sort of scary unknown danger here.
You don't know what you're talking about, there is 0 evidence suggesting that ADE will be an issue, and even the study you cited states "Although this potential risk has been cleverly anticipated before the massive use of Covid-19 vaccines..." which, big surprise, means the pharmaceutical companies creating these vaccines have anticipated this exact thing.
> Of those 16 to 17 deaths, the vast majority will be people with comorbidities. People with comorbidities don't have as many years to live as healthy people of the same age, with or without Covid.
Ok? And? So don't get a vaccine because you found some study that says something that Moderna, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and the entire global health community somehow didn't notice or account for and it'll cause some big scary serious illness problem? Die 5 years prematurely because the vaccine has some unknown and unscientific probability of killing you when we know for a fact that the vaccine will reduce the severity of symptoms occurring due to COVID-19 if you even contract the disease?
But let me guess. You're just "asking questions" right?
The alternative of getting a vaccine and getting the new strain isn't not getting the new strain. The alternative is getting the new strain without the vaccine.
And, to use your phrasing, we do not know how _unvaccinated_ people will react to the new strains either. We do, however, know that the vaccines seem to offer a high degree of protection.
It absolutely is possible: If New York has a high proportion of obese and/or elderly people with comorbidities, it will have a higher IFR than places with a lower proportion.
I’m trying hard to have a positive interpretation of your comments here but it really sounds like you’re saying something to the tune of “who cares they are old or fat” as if their lives don’t matter to prove some statistical point about COVID-19.. And that’s ignoring that the vaccine costs basically nothing, and taking it not only prolongs their own lives but also the lives of others with no meaningful downside. It’s like you’re trying to do some sort of cost-benefit analysis, and thinking the vaccines have some sort of gigantic cost, when they don’t.
> Also Cuomo literally sent people infected with coronavirus into care homes.
Funny the Democrats actually impeached one of their own unethical asshole “leader”. Wonder when the Republicans will catch up and show us those family values.
Of those 16 to 17 deaths, the vast majority will be people with comorbidities. People with comorbidities don't have as many years to live as healthy people of the same age, with or without Covid.
On the other hand, we do not know how vaccinated immune systems will interact with an evolving virus. There is a study suggesting that ADE might be a higher risk with the Delta variant ("However, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants may tip the scales in favor of infection enhancement. Our structural and modeling data suggest that it might be indeed the case for Delta variants": https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8351274/)
If ADE becomes a significant issue with Delta, or the next variant to emerge we will have a scenario where people vaccinated against the Alpha ("Wuhan") strain will develop more serious illness. Imagine the shit that will hit the fan if that happens XD