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Covid has obviously caused infrastructure problems, though the contrast with a war is similar. There are tons of minor maintenance tasks where there are one or two people who need to do some thing every week. Maybe all the people who are responsible for the task are laid up for a week and incapable of doing the maintenance. Multiply that by hundreds of thousands of people getting infected every week you end up with a lot of missed maintenance. And of course the risk that those one or two or three key people die and the task never gets done again until the system just hits the failure mode that the task was intended to avoid.


It was definitely a rickety system before Covid impacted it. But I suspect any strong shock could have caused a similar destabilization.




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