Actually, this looks more interesting than at first look. The previous flip was around '89, which saw the Eastern Europe wave of 'change'. Then 9/11. Now we have the 'Arab Spring'.
But, correlation is not causation so all remains just pure coincidences.
Not that I think that geopolitical happenstance is affected by solar magnetism, but I'm getting a bit fed up with the 'correlation is not causation' police.
No it's not, but nor is it a blanket reason not to investigate apparent parallels.
Just because the 'correlation = causation' is used to dis-infrom through findings that are bolstered by correlations, doesn't mean there's no reason to try and explore a reasonable case as to why the correlation reflects actual causation.
Correlation can infer causation in many instances.
But the GP's mention of the 'correlation is not causation' is completely warranted in this case. He doesn't think 'geopolitical happenstance is affected by solar magnetism' either. And that's exactly what is said. Though there seems to be a correlation, politics is not actually affected by the phenomenon.
> politics is not actually affected by the phenomenon.
What makes you think it does not?
It has been now shown that weather patterns in Europe during the middle ages are correlated with both warfare[1] and witch hunts [2]. Theories that explain these phenomena have been proposed.
The thing is, any astrologer during that period would get the correlation part right but the causal mechanism completely wrong. Move forward 500 years and believers in Scientism (not Science) will take the mistaken causal mechanism, confirm that it does not match with their a priori belief system, and wave off the real correlation as "fudge" or "coincidence".
Sometimes the lack of an explanation lies in the observer, for all/most of the obvious stuff has already been discovered. Lazy evaluation will take you a long way in terms of keeping an open mind.
Its mostly my own ignorance I am admitting. :) I believe the true spirit of the 'Causation is not correlation' phrase is that if the mechanism isn't obvious, don't jump to the conclusion. As your link points out, correlation is a good reason to carry further investigation.
I thought it was just a warning, like we should remember to also make hypotheses about phenomenon X that causes both the Sun's magnetic field to flip and Arab Spring events.
Also, it's worth noting that the US has a quasi-stable cycle of invading other countries for about a decade, then a roughly decade long policy of non-interventionism while they try to forget what a horrible quagmire they got themselves into the last decade.
last time it flipped was in 2001 [1].
[1] http://science1.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2001/a...