> The black swan has a very simple mathematical model: an unlikely event with an effect so great that it will affect the expected value. For example, a greater risk of dying after 20 or 30 years of use - which has not yet been studied. In your calculation of ROI you completely ignore unknown long term effects.
Alright, let me clarify it then: by the remotely meaningful version presented by Taleb, your argument doesn't work and Taleb's writings support taking melatonin, rather than not taking melatonin. Why? Because even in the event of a negative 'black swan' your losses are strictly limited: the worse that can happen is you die. In fact, if I may borrow Taleb's 2x2 table from _The Black Swan_ where he brings up positive 'black swans' as well, it's easier to make a case that taking melatonin is a positive 'black swan': the negative possibilities are strictly in Mediocristan, with limited losses, easy to measure over large populations, predictable, not varying over time; while the positive possibilities look like some of Taleb's examples of attempting to exploit positive 'black swans' in Absurdistan - improved productivity, healthy, and seizing opportunities, things with potentially unlimited payoffs - such as moving to cities and networking with people.
> For example, a greater risk of dying after 20 or 30 years of use - which has not yet been studied.
> That's true of every black swan - the worst that can happen is everybody dies.
Not at all. Taleb like to use the example of selling insurance and shorts, where your downside is unlimited. Millions, billions, trillions... Think AIG or LTCM. Not everything has consequences solely for health.
> You do not mention any studies of long term effects and you consider FUD raising the possibility that there could be adverse effects.
In the absence of any evidence whatsoever for that, and plenty of positive correlations, short-term studies without any problem... Yes. It is FUD. Fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
> When more and more studies show negative long term effect of substances that were considered innocuous (like vitamins), it's not FUD, it's being reasonably cautious.
Only some vitamins show any mortality effects, the mortality effects while real are pretty small, the vitamins did not deliver the long-term health benefits promised (but never really demonstrated in experiments) which might offset the harm, and the vitamins were being consumed in huge doses. The first reduces the possibility of any such outcome, the second points out that you are exaggerating the harm, the third means that vitamins were a purely speculative play unlike melatonin, and the fourth reduces the concern that any such thing would happen with melatonin when one sticks to the suggested doses like 0.5mg rather than 5mg.
Yes you are right, the effect is limited: you die. That's true of every black swan - the worst that can happen is everybody dies. But I don't think that anybody would consider that a "mediocre" outcome. And at the end, you could/should quantify it in your model, or at least mention it as an unknown in your ROI.
You do not mention any studies of long term effects and you consider FUD raising the possibility that there could be adverse effects. When more and more studies show negative long term effect of substances that were considered innocuous (like vitamins), it's not FUD, it's being reasonably cautious.
Alright, let me clarify it then: by the remotely meaningful version presented by Taleb, your argument doesn't work and Taleb's writings support taking melatonin, rather than not taking melatonin. Why? Because even in the event of a negative 'black swan' your losses are strictly limited: the worse that can happen is you die. In fact, if I may borrow Taleb's 2x2 table from _The Black Swan_ where he brings up positive 'black swans' as well, it's easier to make a case that taking melatonin is a positive 'black swan': the negative possibilities are strictly in Mediocristan, with limited losses, easy to measure over large populations, predictable, not varying over time; while the positive possibilities look like some of Taleb's examples of attempting to exploit positive 'black swans' in Absurdistan - improved productivity, healthy, and seizing opportunities, things with potentially unlimited payoffs - such as moving to cities and networking with people.
> For example, a greater risk of dying after 20 or 30 years of use - which has not yet been studied.
FUD.